The core reading is less than three months left at the end of the "Brexit" transition period at the end of the year. The European Union and the United Kingdom have recently stepped up negotiations on future relations.
The analysis believes that the two sides have clearly clarified the other party’s bottom line in key areas such as a fair competition environment and fishery. If they want to reach an agreement at that time, both parties must make compromises.
From October 7th to 9th local time, the European Union and the United Kingdom had a three -day negotiation on the future relationship between the two parties. This is also the last round of official negotiations before the Summit held in mid -month this month, which has attracted much attention from the outside world. From the statement issued after the meeting, the negotiations have been made in the statement. The negotiations have made limited progress, but the atmosphere is good. Both parties stated that they will still be committed to reaching a free trade agreement negotiation. Public opinion generally believes that the main differences between Europe and Britain are still difficult to dispel, and the risk of "no agreement on Brexit" is still very large. In addition, many European countries are facing the challenge of the rebound of the epidemic, and the EU British economy may be negatively affected.
The Chairman of the European Commission Feng Delin recently spoke with British Prime Minister Johnson to evaluate the negotiations of the future relationship between Europe and Britain. The importance of the two sides identified the importance of the agreement and demanded that the negotiations were stepped up to meet the "significant" differences. The future negotiations between the Eurasian relations have continued since its launch in early March.
The British government announced the internal market bill on September 9th, which aims to set up rules for trade circulation in the four regions of China next year. Among them, the terms involving Northern Ireland are considered to be above the "Brexit" agreement reached with the EU before.
The EU responded strongly and asked the United Kingdom to delete dispute clauses. The European Union officially sent a letter to the British government on October 1 to launch a judicial procedure for breach of contract.
The outside world once believed that the negotiations between the two sides were on the verge of rupture. The latest round of negotiation atmosphere has improved. British "Brexit" chief representative Frost and EU chief negotiating representative Barnier told the media that the negotiations between the two sides were "constructive." Frost said the outline of the agreement has been "clearly visible", especially in terms of trade, transportation, transportation, energy, social security and participation in the European Union plan. He hopes that the EU will show more flexibility. Judging from the latest progress, Europe and Britain reached an agreement on mutual benefit negotiations between residents’ social security. People familiar with the matter said that this was "the most active signal so far." In terms of government subsidies, Frost said that Britain is willing to discuss with the EU on government subsidy policies. The compromise reached by the two parties in this regard is "farther than the average free trade agreement." This means that the two sides have room for compromise on this issue. Barnier recently said that it is possible to reach an agreement with the UK. It is expected that after mid -October, the two parties will continue to negotiate. Florist said that there are still many pragmatic issues that need to be negotiated, and in any case, the opportunity to reach an agreement exists. Different difficulties in key areas have always been the core differences of negotiations between the two parties. At present, the gap between the two sides in the distribution of fishery resources is huge. According to media analysis, the British government links fishery with sovereignty, dividing the rights and interests of fishery as one of the iconic rights of independence after "Brexit", and has promised to increase its fishing output in the country. concession. The European Union has always implemented the "common fishery policy", and the current share distribution was divided many years ago.
At present, about 10,000 people in the EU are engaged in fishery fishing, which has a high degree of dependence on British waters.
According to data provided by the European Fisheries Alliance, 42%of EU seafood products are caught in British waters.
The European Union seeks to continue to share fishery resources with the United Kingdom, and proposes to allocate fishery resources based on fixed quotas and countries. Britain hopes to divide the location of fishery resources. In terms of division, the European Union hopes to have a long -term solution, and Britain hopes to negotiate once a year.
Ig Sakis, an analyst of "First Policy" of Brussels Consulting, believes that in the negotiations of fishery resources, Britain has greater initiative.
If it is not a agreement, theoretically Britain can ban the fishing vessels from the EU in the UK waters. The net income of the EU fishermen will lose half of the loss, and at least 6,000 will be unemployed. However, this move is not beneficial to British fishermen. Even if British fishermen’s fishing output rises, it is difficult to enter the EU market or pay tariffs. The British strategy may be to strive for the EU’s compromise in trade. EU sources said that in terms of fair competition environment clauses, Britain has proposed a series of principles of controlling government subsidies, but failed to propose proper governance initiatives. The President of the European Council Michelle said that the European Union hopes to reach an agreement, but this does not mean that the EU is willing to pay any price, and now it is time for the British to "release". At present, European and Britain has made it clear that the "Brexit" transition period in the UK will end on December 31, which means that there are not many negotiations for both parties. Barnier suggested that the more realistic period for reaching an agreement is at the end of October so that the European Parliament has enough time to approve an agreement. Some experts believe that in addition to the time required to perform legal procedures, the final period of the EU Britain reaching an agreement can actually be in mid -November, and the two parties still have time to meet the differences.
Negative impacts have gradually appeared recently. Analysis report released by many institutions shows that the negative impact of Brexit on both sides is gradually appearing, and the impact on Britain is particularly serious.
Taking the financial service industry as an example, as one of the British pillar industries, the financial industry is not within the scope of trade negotiation between the two parties. British media reports that the impact of the British financial industry is inevitable whether Britain and Europe can reach a trade agreement, and many financial companies have made an emergency plan for this. A survey by Ernst & Young Certified Public Accountants in 2019 shows that due to the British "Brexit", financial service companies are transferring assets worth about 1 trillion pounds and transferring about 7,000 jobs from London to other European cities.
Bloomberg commented that "Brexit" threatened London, Britain as a European financial center. Half of London’s stock transaction volume comes from European companies. In the future, these companies may choose to go public on other exchanges. This is a bad news for investors in Britain and the European Union.
A research report from Baker Maijian International Law Firm shows that if the two parties cannot reach a trade agreement, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the UK will lose 134 billion pounds each year in the next 10 years.
According to the report, compared with the United Kingdom in the European Union, even if it can reach an agreement, in the long run, "Brexit" will drag the economic growth of Britain and reduce exports by%. Even if British companies can respond to challenges through adjustment of supply chain and other measures, the impact of "Brexit" on British exports is still great.
The loss of the European Union is also inevitable. A report from the Harley Institute of Economics in Germany believes that if it does not reach a future relationship agreement, the European and British trade relations will return to the Fragments of the World Trade Organization, and EU companies will lose more than 700,000 jobs.
Among them, Germany is the most affected, and tens of thousands of employment positions will be lost. France, Poland, and Italy will lose 80,000 and 10,000 and 10,000 employment positions respectively. British companies that provide services for EU companies to provide services to Britain will also lose 10,000 jobs. Oscar Guinea, a senior economist of European International Political Economic Research Center, told this reporter that the impact of Brexit on the EU and Britain is comprehensive. From economic trade to industrial policy, from personnel to regulatory policy This also illustrates the importance of transitional negotiations. The best choice between the two parties is to reach an agreement to achieve "orderly Brexit". At present, this is still a huge challenge to the two parties.
(October 11, October 11th).