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Look at the world · Dialectical look at the economic forecast of international institutions

[] Editor’s note: Since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the situation has continued to be turbulent. When the new coronary pneumonia has not dissipated and many countries are facing policy adjustment, this conflict not only dragged down the world economy, but also in the long run, it may also have a greater impact on the evolution of the economic pattern. From today, this newspaper has invited experts, scholars and senior journalists to discuss it.

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  Affected by the conflict of Russia and Ukraine, the overlay of the new crown pneumonia has been distributed. Recently, many international organizations have lowered the expectations of global economic growth. The stability of the supply chain industry chain has been further challenged. The possibility of recession. The US economic trend is worthy of attention. Recently, the analysis agencies are discussing whether the US economy will decline. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and former Treasury Secretary Samels and others have warned the United States that it is difficult to have soft landing, and there is a risk of economic recession.

An important basis for market analysis agencies is that some time ago, the yield of US 2 -year Treasury bonds and 10 -year Treasury bonds had an inverted phenomenon. Because the phenomenon of long -term interest rates in the United States is in just a few days It is not enough to continue to observe in order to judge the decline in the US economy according to the basis. It is too early to conclude. The author believes that the US economy is likely to slow down.

High inflation forces the United States to tighten monetary policy.

In the process, if the tightening intensity and too urgent, the economic growth rate may be greatly reduced.

According to the analysis of the U.S. economy by the World Federation of Large -scale Enterprises, the annual growth rate of the US GDP in the first quarter may fall to%, and it may drop to%in the second quarter. With a downward speed, the economy will "hard landing."

  In addition, due to the influence of extremely loose policies in response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the United States and Europe generally have more serious inflation.

If the Russian -Ukraine conflict is no longer further upgraded, the US and European sanctions on Russia no longer have a larger scale. Considering that the effect of the United States tightening monetary policy has been appeared and will continue to tighten. Big, the level of inflation in the United States may be close to the peak area. It is difficult to judge that the development of inflation in European countries in the future. One is that European countries are more direct and affected by the situation of Russia and Ukraine’s conflict. The second is to what extent the measures of the US and European sanctions to Russia, and there are still certain uncertainty. However, the high level of price in European countries may continue to the top of the United States. At the same time, due to severe inflation in Turkey and other countries, the dependence on Russia’s natural gas is relatively high. It is affected by the superposition of Russia and Ukraine’s conflict, and it is likely that a serious economic recession may occur.

As a result, some economies will fall into a stagnation dilemma this year.

  According to predictions, the economic recession in emerging market countries this year, the author thinks this possibility is greater. For example, Russia will be influenced by the US and European sanctions after Russia and Ukraine’s conflict, and the Polish economy will also be affected by Russia’s suspension of gas supply measures.

Central and Eastern European countries such as Poland, Hungary, Germany, Italy, Spain and other developed European countries have a greater risk of downward economy due to relying on energy input.

  In addition, the author believes that the International Monetary Fund may overestimate the downward pressure of the Chinese economy. From the perspective of the first quarter, China’s GDP increased by%, which was a percentage higher than the annual prediction results of the IMF. It should be noted that this was obtained in the context of the March of the epidemic, a large decline in real estate, and a large decline in real estate, and the Russian -Ukraine conflict has occurred. These three points are also the main reason why IMF lowered China’s economic growth expectations. From the perspective of macroeconomic policies, China has a large room for regulation. In March, the consumption prices of residents in my country rose by%year -on -year, and the total price levels were basically stable. Compared with the severe inflation of the United States and Europe, it provided a large space for implementing positive macroeconomic policies. In 2022, the fiscal deficit determined in my country’s fiscal budget accounted for only about%of GDP, and the pressure of fiscal expenditure was relatively small, and it also had certain flexibility in the policy implementation process.

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